Probably Stolen Money Guide: Early Cash Flow

Making money in Probably Stolen is not a single trick. It is a stack of small advantages: buying under appraised value, selling to the right customer, avoiding confiscation, and keeping the rent reserve intact. The players who struggle usually are not short of items. They are short of cash at the wrong moment.

This guide is about the money system, not a day-by-day walkthrough. For the first-hour decisions, see the beginner guide. For the end goal, see rent and shop buyout.

The only equation that matters

Profit per sale is not the sale price. It is:

sale price − purchase price − permit or service cost − risk cost

Risk cost is the part beginners forget. A stolen item may be cheap, but if Security searches the shop, the confiscation can cost more than the margin. A contaminated water bottle may sell once, but the complaint can damage reputation or trigger a liability event. A counterfeit hand may look profitable until the buyer returns.

Write the risk cost down, even if it is only a guess. If the remaining margin is thin, the deal is not worth the inventory slot.

Margin benchmarks by difficulty

The difficulty screen gives three clear retail baselines. These are not market prices; they are the markup the game applies when you sell.

On Thin Margins, profit has to come from buying well and adding value. You cannot rely on the retail multiplier to rescue a bad purchase. That makes appraisal and production more important, not less.

Income stream 1: appraisal and resale

The safest early money is a fast flip. Find an item the seller undervalues, appraise it correctly, and sell it to a customer who values it. Cybernetic hands, plasma cartridges, cigarettes, and sealed food are good teaching items because their checks are visual and repeatable.

The appraisal service also pays a commission. The Junior Appraiser rank is reported as a 20-credit fee plus 15% of the appraised value. That is useful when you do not want to hold the item, but it is not a substitute for learning the markers yourself.

Use the appraisal guide for exact adjustments. The money lesson is simpler: an item is only a good buy if you can name the buyer and the price before you pay.

Income stream 2: water

Water is the most beginner-friendly recurring sale. Bottles are cheap, demand is constant, and the testing workflow is easy to learn. The catch is contamination. A bottle can look clean and still contain heavy metals, chemicals, or microbes.

The basic workflow is:

1. Test the water to learn its grade and contaminants.
2. Use a purification tablet for microbes and some chemicals.
3. Use a pitcher filter for organic, mineral, and physical contaminants.
4. Run a proper purifier when you need Pure grade.
5. Re-test before selling.

A clean bottle of High-Quality or Pure water sells for more than a dirty Basewater bottle, and the customer complaint risk is lower. The water guide covers the grades, tools, and the exact limits of each filter.

Income stream 3: chemistry

Chemistry has the highest ceiling and the highest capital requirement. You need a blender, a heating plate, a chem finisher, reagents, and enough machine modules to reduce loss and contamination. A clean Lab Pure batch can be worth several times the input cost; a contaminated batch is inventory you cannot move.

Do not start chemistry with your rent money. Start it after you have a stable water or resale income, then reinvest the first clean batch. The chemistry guide explains the machines; the recipes page lists temperatures and yields.

Income stream 4: wine and food

Wine is a slower cycle. You buy fruit, prepare must, ferment, and wait. The payoff is a higher-value bottle that wealthy customers will buy. It is a good use of dead time because the machine works while you serve customers, but it is a bad use of your last 500 credits if rent is due tomorrow.

The same logic applies to hydroponic crops and cooked food. Production lines turn time into value, but they lock up capital. Keep one fast line and one slow line, not five slow lines.

Income stream 5: guns and licensed goods

Guns bring high margins and inspections. A Class 1 permit lets you trade legally, but security attention rises when you stock weapons or modify them. The Gunsmith start gives you a permit and starting stock, which is a strong opening but not a licence to ignore the law.

If you go down this route, budget for permit costs and inspections. On Thin Margins the vendor permit costs 2,000 credits, and upgrades cost more. The margin has to cover the compliance cost, not just the item.

What to reinvest first

Do not buy display space before you have stock to display. Do not buy a second machine before the first one runs a full cycle. The cheapest upgrade is usually the one that removes a bottleneck you already have.

The 10,000-credit checkpoint

The achievement Comfortably Afloat requires starting a day with more than 10,000 credits in estimated total wealth. That is a useful mental checkpoint: it means you have survived the opening squeeze and have enough capital to absorb a bad deal. The next checkpoint, Swimming in Credits, is 100,000 credits. Both are wealth measures, not cash on hand, so inventory and property count.

If you are far from 10,000, stop buying speculative items. Focus on fast turns, keep the rent paid, and let the compounding do the work.

FAQ

What is the fastest way to make money in Probably Stolen? Early on, fast appraisal flips and clean water. Later, chemistry and licensed goods scale harder but require capital and risk management.

Is the appraisal commission worth it? It is worth it when you need cash without holding inventory. It is not worth it if you can sell the item to a customer for a better margin.

Should I sell stolen goods? They can be profitable, but they raise Security attention and can be confiscated. Keep them out of the display window and decide whether the margin pays for the risk.

Community source: Probably Stolen store page ↗, Steam Community guides ↗, and the in-game difficulty screen. Workshop examples on the Steam Workshop ↗.

Related

• Beginner Guide
• Rent and Shop Buyout
• Water Guide